Prospettive delle tariffe merci transpacifiche: cosa aspettarsi nel Q2 2026.

The trans-Pacific spot market closed Q1 2026 in relatively stable territory following a surge in January driven by front-loaded shipments ahead of Lunar New Year. Shanghai Containerised Freight Index (SCFI) figures show China–US West Coast rates settling near the $2,200–$2,500 per FEU range, down roughly 8% from the Q1 peak but still meaningfully above 2024 lows.

The moderation reflects a combination of factors: additional vessel deployments from the recently restructured alliances, softer consumer electronics demand in February and March, and shippers actively drawing down safety stock built during 2025. Despite this, capacity discipline among the major carriers has prevented the kind of freefall seen in mid-2023.

The rebalancing of the major carrier alliances that took effect in February 2025 continues to ripple through the market. The Gemini Cooperation between Maersk and Hapag-Lloyd is now fully operational on trans-Pacific strings, delivering notably improved schedule reliability — Maersk reports 95%+ on-time performance on its Asia–North America services, a figure shippers have noticed.

MSC, operating independently, has expanded its own Asia–North America services with four new vessels entering service between May and July 2026. This additional capacity — estimated at 48,000 TEU per week across the alliance field — is likely to cap any significant rate spikes through Q2 unless demand accelerates faster than expected.

Retail inventory data from key North American importers suggests a moderate restocking cycle is underway. Home goods, consumer electronics, and apparel shipments from China have increased through March, and logistics teams at major retailers are accelerating Q3 bookings to secure space and avoid the June crunch that has caught importers off-guard in previous years.

The National Retail Federation's import forecast for US container volumes points to a 4.2% year-on-year increase through the summer months. Combined with seasonal demand from back-to-school and early holiday inventory builds, expect June–August to see firmer rates — potentially $3,000–$3,500 per FEU on West Coast lanes if space tightens.

On the Asia–North Europe trades, rates have held relatively firm. The key variable is congestion at Rotterdam, currently running at 3–5 extra days on inbound vessel processing, which is creating knock-on delays for inland connections to Germany, Poland, and the Benelux distribution networks.

Shippers routing through Hamburg or Antwerp are seeing somewhat cleaner operations. If your goods are destined for central or eastern Europe, discuss rail options from Hamburg or direct China–Europe rail services with your forwarder — under current port conditions, these can be competitive with sea on total door-to-door time.